Connected
Proposal and test · Line A · Batch mixing

Hold time: no number offered

Hold time 55 to 50 min · optimiser opt 2.4.0 · raised 18 Oct 14:00
All proposals
Process agent·Line A·Mixer M1·Hold time 55 to 50 min·14:00StayWithheld

Hold time: no number offered

Shorter hold looked possible on Grade A-12.

Expected result
ModelledViscosity2450 mPa·s90% interval 2300 to 2620Safety filter failed
Spec 2380 to 2600 mPa·s (dashed). Driven by Hold time.
Why this confidence
Method
Optimiser opt 2.4.0; band from the model of the machine; weakest input modelled
Model fit
Accepted, four checks passed
Safety filter
Failed: Predicted band crosses the upper spec
Evidence
EV-A-1060
Limits
Hold time55 min
4070
Signed by Plant head A. · 9 SeptNow
If stoppedNothing was written.
NoticedProposedWithheld

Test on the model of the machine

Predicted viscosity
ModelledViscosity2450 mPa·s90% interval 2300 to 2620Safety filter failed
Spec 2380 to 2600 mPa·s (dashed). Driven by Hold time.
Why this confidence
Method
Model Line model A a-2.2; band is the model's 90% interval; no single score is documented for proposals
Model fit
Accepted, four checks passed
Safety filter
Failed: Predicted band crosses the upper spec
Evidence
EV-A-1060
Viscosity, last 12 batches26002380
CheckResultDetail
Safety filterFailedPredicted band crosses the upper spec
Model fitAcceptedLine model A a-2.2, coverage 81% on 96 held-out points
Weakest inputModelledA claim is as strong as its weakest load-bearing input
Inside the windowYesSigned 40 to 70 min

Model fit · Line A

Not accepted
90% interval coverage on 96 held-out points81%
70%85 to 95% accepted100%
  • Fail90% interval coverage81%, needs 85 to 95%
  • PassHeld-out error41 mPa·s
  • PassNo drift in residualsflat, 30 d
  • PassPhysical limits respectedall
Calibrated 17 Oct. Proposals on this line are withheld until all four checks pass. Model fit

Runs this rests on

Recent runs
RunHold timeViscosity
Batch 2419552440.5
Batch 2418552397.6
Batch 2417552453.5
Batch 2416552419.9
Batch 2415552508.9
Batch 2414552442.9

History

  • 18 Oct 14:00Proposed by optimiser opt 2.4.0